Q. We have been hearing about this counter offensive for months. Even Ukrainians are saying ‘Get on with it!’ What do you make of it?
A. It is going on now. Russia is not making gains. They are fortifying, recruiting, and basically reorganizing–not a strong skill–the old, vast, and corruption-eaten stores of equipment. Civilians are being evacuated. Infighting, i.e., dismissals and complaints from the Wagner Group, seemingly the only actual, on the ground Russian warriors, are distracting. There is no way you can hide in plain sight, at least not a thousand miles or more of it. It is all a very wise distraction.
Bitty attacks are appearing in the news–so a fraction of what is actually happening–but it is happening.
No F-16s, but the quote going around is 98% of planned, requested, effective weapons are delivered. Soldiers are trained and familiar. At this point there is no evidence trenches, mines, or Russian equipment can match the Ukrainian force. This is of course not including the huge advantage the natives have over the oppressors–morale and all that comes with it, and geography too.
Q. Why are you so certain it is not just a thing, or that it is, or will be, a big thing?
This is Ukraine’s chance to rid themselves from Russia. Maybe not their only chance, but their best chance.
Q. Will Ukraine succeed?
Let’s go back to the objectives. The major one is to stop Russia from doing it again. Georgia, Moldova, the Baltic States, and certainly Finland and Sweden, are safer today than they were a year ago. For the rest of the democratic world it is a giant test market. Out with the old in with the new, all at the expense of Russia.
Ukraine, in turn, wants the support. It is only securing its place in future, formal inclusion. Aside from the U.S., Ukraine has the strongest army in Europe (assuming Russia is not a part). It’s economy has huge potential both as a supplier and as a market. Ukraine is, as we watch, overcoming its corruption problem.
They are succeeding in repelling Russia and protecting their country. As an example, F-16s, as with NATO, will come eventually–I am not attaching a date and it may take 10 years–as the integration becomes more complete.
It may have been inconceivable that any country would