Posted by 
Fri 8/23/24
This is The West, as they say, and everyone has an opinion still after two and a half years. How easy it is to open a YouTube or Telegram channel and claim to be an expert. Ah, to be an influencer.
But there are influences and there are influences. The experts, see below, are the ones worth paying attention to. Using the term loosely, everyone agrees it is masterful both in its thinking and execution. Most agree Ukraine has stolen the key ingredient of momentum even with the eventual near-capture of Pokrovsk. There has been much conjecture on the risks and potential benefits to Ukraine and this is where the overall judgement of the attack is either praised or condemned.
It is still too early to tell given Ukraine has continued with the attack–drones on Moscow, fire in Roskov, drone attacks on airfields, and solidification without major reprisal in Kursk.
We have been hearing about it for months and this is why and how the Russian invasion is so hard to stop; Pokrovsk and the surrounding area, railways, highways, and supply routes, may fall. If so, it will be destroyed like Mariupol and other places; no more citizen attacks like Bucha. Blame it on The West, some say, meaning the United States. Regardless, that is how they–Russians–do it and the Ukrainians know it better than anyone. Destroy it completely and rebuild it as our own. Perhaps even Ukraine’s best soldiers and (local) equipment cannot stop it.
Out of survival and desperation, Ukraine, on its own, chose to attack. Call it a loophole in terms of using donated weapons. We have learned from Putin that there is constant embarrassment, but above all he survives. Analysis tells us that as long as they can continue the attack and momentum in some way it is a wise move. Why did they go out in the open and lose men and equipment in Russia? They had to. It is still a smart move until it isn’t.
There are some macro influences working in Ukraine’s favor, such as Russia’s economy, demographics, Russian losses, and Europe’s efforts. Then there are oligarchs, corruption, and bureaucracy.
Could it be another fall of the Soviet Union or election of another Yeltsin or Gorbachev? No, there is no indication Putin has lost control. But among all the analysis centered on Ukraine’s objectives, they are claiming and proving the fact that Russia is not as invincible–as dangerous–as previously thought. They are vulnerable if not beatable, especially by NATO or the U.S.
Crux, or at least the video in the screenshot above, is not particularly helpful; this is, and it is still relevant today; so is this. Most memorable is the statement from Mireille Clapot, the Member of French Parliament, when she qualifies all the information as “everything Putin says is a lie” (paraphrasing). The information coming from Ukraine is better but, in war and even from civilians and journalists, but still lacking. We rely on us/the analysts and pundits.
Russia is an “information autocracy” and Putin is on walkabout. Sean Bell said it too: warfare is all about momentum and initiative.
The Crux headline is the headline news today because Putin has a very, very serious problem. The real news is the Ukrainian momentum and initiative is continuing with a major strategic missile strike near Crimea, continued drone attacks on airfields in Russia, and evacuations, threats, or incursion in Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk oblasts.
It is all good news in a subtle, French kind of way. The U.S. policy has been great with a blip so far; yes we want to degrade Russia so they can’t do it again but no, we are not in the nation-destroying or leader-assassinating business.
Ukraine, for all their complaining, has been a country who deserves their independence. They sank the railroad car ship near the Kerch bridge with their own Neptune missile and Ukrainians developed, built, and flew the drones that destroyed Russian fighter jets and oil installations.
Obviously, Russia is not going to win as long as Ukrainian soldiers are in their country. So right now, Ukraine is winning.